Hi and welcome. if you appreciate this type of content, consider upgrading to a paid subscription, to help ensure that independent journalism and analysis survive. Without your support this kind of hard-hitting, fact-based analysis would not be possible. The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Thank you for your support and loyalty. An earlier version of this story appeared on Channel News Asia. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s world just shrunk considerably. An International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza obliges the Court’s 124 members, or two-thirds of the world’s countries, to arrest Mr. Netanyahu on sight. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s world contracted similarly when the Court ordered his arrest in 2023 for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Even so, Mr. Netanyahu and Israel are likely to feel far more than Mr. Putin the impact of the warrant against the prime minister and his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, whom Mr. Netanyahu fired earlier this month. Israel has more allies than Russia among ICC members that feel obliged to uphold the rule of law by honouring the Court’s warrant should Messrs. Netanyahu or Gallant be within their jurisdiction. Israel’s allies include European Union member states, some of whom continue to sell arms to Israel. They are among a minority of countries where Israeli officials are still welcome. The Court’s move marked the first time the ICC has issued arrest warrants against leaders of a democratic country. ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan sought the warrants on charges that Messrs. Netanyahu and Gallant allegedly targeted civilians in Gaza and used starvation as a method of war. Credit: NIAC ActionThe court also issued a warrant for Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif, who Israel says it killed in Gaza in July. The ICC charged Mr. Deif with war crimes in last year’s October 7 Hamas attack on Israel in which some 1,200 people, mostly civilians and non-combatants, were killed and 250 others kidnapped. Hamas never confirmed Mr. Deif’s killing in contrast to Israel’s assassination of two of the group’s other leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, whom Mr. Khan had also targeted. The ICC has no independent mechanism to enforce the warrants. It depends on the 125 signatories of the Rome Statute that established the ICC in 1999 to execute its warrants. A host of Western officials, including EU foreign affairs czar Josep Borrel, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Petra de Sutte, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp, and French Foreign Ministry spokesman Christophe Lemoine, were quick to acknowledge the warrant and suggest they would arrest the Israelis if the opportunity arose. Far-right European leaders appeared split on the arrest warrants despite Mr. Netanyahu’s investment in building relations over the years. While Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s government said it would have to arrest the prime minister if he were on Italian soil, Hungary’s leader, Victor Orban, in an act of defiance invited Mr. Netanyahu for a visit. Europe’s honouring of the arrest warrants will likely increase Israel’s international isolation and condemnation as a pariah state. Israeli reports warned the warrants could lead to a European arms embargo. Some EU members, including Italy and Britain, have already curtailed arms sales to Israel. France has twice barred Israeli companies from participating in defence exhibitions. The warrants potentially call into question the German government’s recent controversial approval of US$ 100 million in military exports to Israel. The government, which is struggling with its response to the arrest warrants, submitted to the court in August a legal brief arguing that the ICC had no jurisdiction over Israel regarding the Gaza war. As a result, the ICC may have opened a Pandora’s Box by issuing the arrest warrants. Source: InstagramNot only do the warrants complicate, but they also potentially prevent Messrs. Netanyahu and Gallant from traveling to Europe. Furthermore, they will likely make other Israeli officials think twice about visiting Europe. The officials fear that the ICC has issued secret warrants for their arrest or that they could see their freedom of movement restricted by local courts. In theory, the warrants could make Messrs. Netanyahu and Gallant’s travel to the United States, the one country that has condemned the ICC’s actions, more difficult because their plane could be forced to land in an ICC member state whose airspace their plane traverses. Moreover, the warrants could further muddle Europe’s already potentially troubled relations with US President-elect Donald J. Trump as Republicans and Democrats line up in support of Israel and threaten to sanction the Court and its judges and prosecutors. Trita Parsi, the executive director of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted, “It is reasonable to expect that once Trump comes in, he will go after the ICC and the ICJ (International Court of Justice) in ways that profoundly damages the multilateral system.” Michael Waltz, Trump’s nominee as his national security advisor, echoed Mr. Netanyahuand Gallant in his response to the Court’s move, saying, “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January” when the president-elect takes office. South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump supporter, said he would introduce legislation “that puts other countries on notice – If you aid and abet the ICC after their action against the State of Israel, you can expect consequences from the United States. Any nation that joins with the ICC after this outrage is a partner in a reckless act that tramples the rule of law,” Mr. Graham said. Haaretz headline 22 November 2024Mr. Netanyahu may see a silver lining at home in the ICC issuing the arrest warrants. Israelis have rallied behind Mr. Netanyahu, a controversial leader, whom many blame for Hamas’ October 7 attack and Israel’s failure to free some 100 captives still held hostage by the group, in their rejection of the ICC move. As a result, Mr. Netanyahu will likely use calls by his ultra-nationalist coalition partners to annex the West Bank and administer Gaza in response to the ICC as a license to delay and sabotage Gaza ceasefire efforts and prolong the war. Mr. Netanyahu “has an overpowering personal interest in the mayhem continuing so as to buy time after the Oct. 7 debacle, until people forget or still bigger tragedies occur,” said Dan Perry, a pro-Israel pundit with little regard for the prime minister. Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey. |